Phil’s Fantasy Sports: FanDuel MLB Top Picks for Tuesday May 2, 2017

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Phils Fantasy Sports

(Maximum Sports Channels – Phil Naessens) We have the standard 15 game MLB slate at FanDuel tonight. Possible weather issues tonight are in Miami and that seems to be about it. As always please check the weather to make sure the players you have selected have a game tonight.

Game Money Line Over Under Totals
Diamondbacks @ Nationals Nationals -166 8.5
Blue Jays @ Yankees Yankees -195 8
Indians @ Tigers Indians -120 8
Pirates @ Reds Reds -113 9
Rays @ Marlins Miami -120 8
Orioles @ Red Sox Boston -212 8
Mets @ Braves Mets -122 8
Phillies @ Cubs Cubs -220 7.5
Athletics @ Twins Twins -135 8
Rangers @ Astros Astros -133 8
Brewers @ Cardinals Cardinals -175 8
White Sox @ Royals Royals -132 8
Angels @ Mariners Mariners -150 7.5
Rockies @ Padres Rockies -130 7.5
Giants @ Dodgers Dodgers -175 7

Starting Pitching

There are plenty of terrific options on tonight’s slate and I have narrowed it down to four pitchers I’m seriously considering for tonight.

Boston Red Sox leftie Chris Sale ($11,700) is currently the best pitcher in baseball numbers wise and he has an opportunity tonight to continue this against a Baltimore Orioles offense with a 26 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of .295 and wRC+ of 87 this season against southpaws. Sale is striking out nearly 13 hitters per nine innings pitched, allowing .24 bombs per nine innings pitched with an xFIP of 2.08. Sale is pricey but should be worth it at home tonight.

I’ve really liked what I have seen from Seattle Mariners SP James Paxton ($9300) this season; nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, zero bombs, xFIP of 2.78 and three wins against zero losses is hard not to like. The Angels only strikeout 16 percent of the time against lefties with a wOBA of .307 and wRC+ of 104 this season so keep that in mind tonight. Lowest expected run total on the board tonight just don’t look for the big strikeout totals from Paxton.

Minnesota Twins SP Ervin Santana ($9200) has been pitching lights out this season with just under seven strikeouts per nine, less than .50 bombs per nine and 4.08 xFIP. Santana also has four wins against zero losses this season and five quality starts. He ain’t Kershaw yet but he will do against an Oakland A’s offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .305 wOBA and wRC+ of 104.

Chicago White Sox SP Jose Quintana ($8700) has a good opportunity tonight against a Kansas City Royals offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate, .237 wOBA and wRC+ of 45 against lefties this season. Quintana is averaging 9.20 strikeouts per nine, 1.53 bombs per nine and a 4.03 xFIP with three quality starts and one win this season. Ironically his last start was against these same Royals hitters with ten strikeouts so hopefully he can come close to that again tonight.

Colorado Rockies SP Tyler Chatwood ($7600) has a great opportunity tonight against a San Diego Padres offense with a 26 percent strikeout rate, .297 wOBA and wRC+ of 84. For his part Chatwood has a 17.2 strikeout rate, 6.32 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.01 bombs per nine and a 3.87 xFIP AND he is pitching in Petco Park. The more I look at Chatwood the more I like.

Stacking Opportunities Tonight

With 15 games on the slate and the majority of the games in the same over under range there are numerous opportunities for stacking tonight. Here are a couple of full stacks I am considering.

There is a 14 MPH wind expected to be blowing out tonight at Great American Ballpark and I plan on having plenty of exposure to this game tonight. The problem is neither of these teams move the needle very much against right-handers. Reds players I would use are Zack Cozart ($3000), Eugenio Suarez ($3600), Scott Schebler ($3500) and Joey Votto ($4000) and okay Billy Hamilton ($3200). For the Pirates I like David Freese ($2500), Josh Bell ($3000), Adam Frazier ($2600) and Gregory Polanco ($3400).

The wind is expected to blow out to right at about ten MPH at Nationals Park and this should benefit both the Diamondbacks and Nationals as both teams are in the top five in baseball against right handed pitchers. These stacks are also going to be expensive tonight. For the Nationals I like Bryce Harper ($5200), Ryan Zimmerman ($3900), Daniel Murphy ($4300), Trea Turner ($4300) and Matt Wieters ($3100). For the Diamondbacks I like Paul Goldschmidt ($4700), Yasmany Tomas ($3700), David Peralta ($3100) and Jake Lamb ($4000).

Phil’s Top Three Plays for Tonight

Chicago White Sox 1B Jose Abreu ($3600) has a good opportunity tonight against Kansas City Royals left hander Danny Duffy. This season Abreu has a .136 ISO, wOBA of .326 and wRC+ of 110 whereas Duffy has been pretty solid against righties but also remember last night Abreu had a six game multi-hit games streak snapped so he’s hot and will probably go overlooked tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies 3B Maikel Franco ($3300) has a 52.6 percent hard contact rate against lefties and he’s up against the Cubs lefty Jon Lester who also a 28.8 percent hard contact rate to righties. Lester has also allowed 1.16 bombs per nine innings to right handed batters while Franco has one bomb in 28 plate appearances this season. What all that jibber means is I think Franco is going to go yard tonight and hopefully you will have him in your lineup tonight.

Chicago Cubs OF Kyle Schwarber ($3300) has a good opportunity tonight against Philadelphia Phillies SP Jeremy Hellickson. Schwarber is off to a bit of a slow start this season but against a pitcher like Hellickson with his 39 percent fly ball rate and 5.55 xFIP on the road against left handed bats I will take my chances with Schwarber tonight.

Special thanks to Fangraphs, Vegas Insider, Statmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!

In case you are interested; On this week’s Nuthin But Fantasy hosts Andrea LaMont and Phil Naessens discuss selling Milwaukee Brewers sluggers Eric Thames “high”, Wade Miley vs Chase Anderson, waiver wire adds and much more!!

Nithin’ But Fantasy

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