Friday’s Projected NBA Starting Lineups & Injury News

Below are the projected starting lineups for each NBA team for Friday’s eight-game slate, along with notable news for each squad. For real-time updates to these lineups, check out the FantasyLabs matchups page. Last updated 9 a.m. ET. AffiliatePromoCTA Projected NBA Starting Lineups for Friday, November 15 Finish reading this entire article absolutely FREE in …

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George is here, and the Clippers have shown that he is necessary

The LA Clippers debut for Paul George came without Kawhi Leonard and in a loss. But George demonstrates difference making ability for a team expecting to contend.

Carmelo Anthony Signs With Blazers: How Bookmakers Are Reacting

Carmelo Anthony is back … and the lines aren’t moving. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Thursday night that the Portland Trail Blazers are signing Carmelo Anthony during their upcoming road trip. The Blazers making this move isn’t necessarily surprising. They have been linked to Anthony going back to his final years in New York, and Portland …

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The long-awaited reaction to Carmelo Anthony’s return to the NBA

Damian Lillard thought he’d never come to Portland. But after a year away, Anthony will join the Trail Blazers.

Sources: Carmelo signing deal with Trail Blazers

Carmelo Anthony, who last played in an NBA game in November 2018, is signing a non-guaranteed deal with the Trail Blazers, league sources told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

Porzingis hears angry boos, chants in MSG return

Just as he’d predicted, Mavs forward Kristaps Porzingis was forcibly booed before and during Thursday night’s game against the Knicks in his first game back at Madison Square Garden since he his February trade to Dallas.

George makes Clippers debut, scores 33 in loss

After missing the season’s first 11 games with a shoulder injury, Paul George made his long-awaited Clippers debut, scoring 33 points in a 132-127 loss to the Pelicans as Kawhi Leonard sat out.

Hawks G Huerter out with a left shoulder strain

Atlanta Hawks guard Kevin Huerter will be reexamined in two weeks after an MRI revealed a left rotator cuff strain during the team’s West Coast road trip.

Thursday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 14): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injury News, More

This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 4-5 across spreads, totals and props for -0.48 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

  • I bet Warriors +8 and it closed at Warriors +9 (lost)
  • I bet Spurs-Wolves under 227 and it closed at 228.5 (lost)
  • I bet Clippers +2 and it closed at +2 (lost)
  • I bet Wizards-Celtics over 229.5 and it closed at 230 (won)
  • I bet Grizzlies-Hornets over 221.5 and it closed at 221 (won)
  • I bet 76ers-Magic over 206.5 and it closed at 207.5 (won)
  • I bet Magic -1 and it closed at Magic -2.5 (won)

I had a bit of a mixed night in terms of CLV, gaining a bunch in the Magic game but losing some at the last second with the Warriors and in the Spurs-Wolves game. Those held pretty much all day and moved right at the last second.

The most interesting movement (or lack thereof) was in that Clippers-Rockets game. Kawhi Leonard was ultimately ruled in, which was personally surprising to me for reasons I detailed yesterday.

Long story short: Kawhi is not playing back-to-backs, and the Clippers seemingly have prioritized playing him against the weaker team in that situation, plus they are incentivized to get Kawhi and Paul George (who is reportedly making his debut tonight) reps together.

I thought it set up for Kawhi resting yet again on the front leg of the back-to-back, as he’s done in each of the Clippers’ first two B2Bs. I thought the market would be in line with my thoughts on the situation, but apparently it was not yet again. The line did not budge at all following the Kawhi news; it closed at the same number as before the injury news.

There are a couple interesting takeaways here. First, the market apparently thinks these teams as they stood last night — with Kawhi but no George and no Landry Shamet; no Eric Gordon or Danuel House for the Rockets — were even on a neutral court or the Rockets slightly better. I was skeptical that was true given the teams’ play this year, although the Rockets ultimately won this game largely thanks to a free throw disparity.

Second, it seems the market does not really know what to do with the Kawhi situation on these back-to-backs. I was shocked they listed the Bucks +1 last week when Kawhi was likely to rest, and that number moved to Bucks -6.5 after the Kawhi news.

I thought yesterday they’d hedge a bit and account for the uncertainty, but the lack of line movement showed that to be false. They were fully accounting on him playing, which I think was risky. If Kawhi didn’t play, they would have been wide open to getting hammered on the Houston side.

This is something to monitor moving forward — how the market is going to treat load management. Yesterday, the Magic moved from -1 to -2.5 after the Joel Embiid news, which suggested they accounted for the uncertainty and hedged the line. They didn’t with Kawhi, which is curious. This will definitely be a focus of mine moving forward in this piece, as either way it’ll provide some value if we’re able to predict these situations.

Anyway, let’s get to today’s six-game slate and find some angles. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you’re looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

  • Overall: 69-52-1
  • Spreads: 21-22-1
  • Totals: 14-10
  • Moneylines: 5-0
  • Props: 28-20

Jump To: Odds & Analysis | Projected Starting Lineups & Injury NewsPlayer Props | DFS Values & Strategy | My Bets | Live Chat

Betting Odds and Analysis

  • 6 p.m. ET: Miami Heat (-4) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 215
  • 8 p.m. ET: LA Clippers (-3.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 234
  • 8 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks (-7.5) at New York Knicks, 215
  • 8 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5), 229
  • 9 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns (-8), 228
  • 10:30 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets (-7.5), 223.5

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Let’s run through a couple situations for today.

Nets at Nuggets

Note: Kyrie Irving has been upgraded to probable. If he’s ruled out, the below obviously applies. If he plays, this game is a stay away for me.

Kyrie Irving is questionable with a shoulder injury, and Caris LeVert is out several weeks with a thumb injury. That’s … not great. If Irving is ultimately unable to go, that leaves Spencer Dinwiddie as the sole positive playmaker on this team going against a Nuggets squad that ranks sixth in defensive efficiency so far this year.

Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Frank Ntilikina Is Figuring It Out

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:

  • Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers: 6:00 p.m. ET
  • Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks: 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:00 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Knicks G Frank Ntilikina

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