In what will be the penultimate NFL game of the season, the heir of Brett Favre visits the heir of Tom Brady to decide who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl. While sharps waited until Thursday to make a move on this game, there’s been some very interesting activity over the past few days. …
Continue reading “Packers vs. 49ers Sharp Betting Pick: Buyback on the NFC Championship Over/Under”
Stuckey analyzes both conference championship matchups and makes his picks for Titans-Chiefs and Packers-49ers.
Titans at Chiefs
One key to NFL playoff betting is to fade teams after scoring 40 or more points. Postseason NFL lines tend to be pretty sharp, but public perception can still create a bit of value in certain circumstances — particularly after a team comes off an impressive blowout in the postseason.
Teams are 6-25-1 against the spread the week after scoring 40 or more points in the playoffs since 1980 — that’s worse than a 20% cover clip.
Packers at 49ers Picks & NFC Championship Odds Odds: 49ers -7.5 Over/Under: 46.5 Kickoff: 6:40 p.m. ET TV Channel: FOX Odds as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500. After opening as 7-point favorites, the 49ers are up to -7.5 heading into Sunday’s NFC Championship …
Continue reading “Packers vs. 49ers Picks, Predictions & Odds: How We’re Betting the NFC Championship Game”
There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And in honor of the playoffs, I’m peeling the curtain back on my full prop betting process.
Below is a guide to the player props I’m betting for Sunday’s conference championships featuring the Titans at Chiefs and Packers at 49ers. I’ve also created a downloadable spreadsheet calculator, which you can use to plug in the lines at your books and automatically calculate the exact edge on 13 different props (including ones I haven’t made picks on yet).
Note that I typically wouldn’t bet a prop unless the line offers a 58% edge according to my calculations, so every pick I’ve outlined in the following analysis reaches at least that threshold.
Now let’s dig into the slate.
AFC & NFC Championship Props & Picks: Titans-Chiefs & Packers-49ers
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
Williams is a very interesting back to forecast.
Because the Chiefs fell behind to the Texans early in the Divisional Round, Kansas City was forced into an extreme pass-heavy game plan. Williams finished with 12 carries, but it’s safe to assume he would have seen more had the Chiefs not trailed by more than three scores to start the game. Therefore I’m projecting him for 13.5 carries against the Titans.
Titans at Chiefs Odds & Picks: AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs -7.5 Over/Under: 52.5 Kickoff: 3:05 p.m. ET TV Channel: CBS Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500. The Chiefs’ hopes of returning to the AFC Championship looked dim when they fell behind, 24-0, …
Continue reading “Titans vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Odds: How We’re Betting the AFC Championship”
Aside from nearly identical point spreads and some surprise teams making appearances, the story for this weekend’s NFL Conference Championship weekend surrounds the weather — well, at least in one of the games. Bet 49ers +49 vs. Packers & Win $200 at BetMGMRead now While not as windy as last week’s forecast, this weekend is …
Continue reading “Titans vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast: Cold Temperatures, Wind Expected at Arrowhead Stadium”