NASCAR StatWatch: Razor-thin win at Talladega

Ryan Blaney’s first win of the season, by .007 seconds, marked the sixth time since 1993 a race was decided by that margin or less.

Rain forces playoff postponement at Talladega

NASCAR’s playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway has been postponed a day because of rain.

NASCAR Talladega Matchup Odds & Picks: 2 Underdogs Worth Betting

Today’s race at Talladega is the first playoff race under the current aerodynamic package. That means there’s a lot of uncertainty as to how this race will play out.

Traditionally, the Talladega playoff race has been a more muted version of it’s spring counterpart. Since 2012, an average of 24.7 drivers finish within one lap of the lead in the spring. However, that number balloons to 30.1 for the fall Talladega race.


All of those races until this year came with restrictor plates and a different aerodynamic package. Now NASCAR uses a tapered spacer and a high drag aerodynamic package, which has so far created two races with plenty of action.

Either way, the action within the pack can be unpredictable, so we’ll take advantage of that unpredictability to bet a couple underdogs.

A quick explanation on the odds below: +125 means that a $100 bet would profit $125, while +140 means that a $100 bet would profit $140.

NASCAR Talladega Betting Odds & Picks: Target Longshots at 500

Talladega Superspeedway will host the second race of Round 2 of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. A wild Dover race featured major mishaps for three playoff contenders, as Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney all finished 34th or worse. The eight other playoff drivers finished inside the top 13. These results should create interesting dynamics heading into Sunday’s third Superspeedway race under the 2019 rules package.

The top three drivers in points — Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch — could be points racing and running a relatively conservative race until the end. That’s because any finish on the lead lap should put these drivers in a strong position to advance to Round 3 heading into next weekend’s elimination race at Kansas.

Kevin Harvick is also likely in the same boat, sitting 42 points ahead of the elimination bubble. Kyle Larson, meanwhile, has clinched a spot in the next round and can race for stage wins and the overall victory to accumulate playoff points.


The rest of the playoff drivers are likely racing each other for the final three transfer spots. Each of them would love to clinch a spot in the next round with a win at Talladega. Only Ryan Blaney is really in a must-win situation, sitting 22 points behind the cut line for advancement.

With three or four drivers possibly playing it conservative, and some drivers in must-win mode, it could open up the door for longer value at a track that’s already known for longshot wins.

Below, I’ll take some insights from the first two Superspeedway races of the year, as well as past Superspeedway history and playoff dynamics, to find a few longshot bets offering value to win today’s 500.

Elliott leads Hendrick sweep in Talladega qualifying

Chase Elliott, whose chances of advancing in the Cup Series playoffs were hurt by an engine failure at Dover last Sunday, has won the pole at Talladega Supersppedway. His Hendrick Motorsports teammates took the next three spots.

2019 500 Betting Odds & Predictions

Kyle Larson picked the right time to end a long drought. The first spot in the Round of 8 is his as the drivers prepare for what could be a crazy and chaotic race at Talladega Superspeedway in the 500. This is the second race in the Round of 12 and the fact that … Continue reading 2019 500 Betting Odds & Predictions

The post 2019 500 Betting Odds & Predictions appeared first on BangTheBook.

NASCAR StatWatch: Larson’s win perfect timing

It was a long wait, but Kyle Larson’s first win in 75 races vaulted him into the NASCAR playoff Round of Eight.

NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Pick: The Longshot to Bet Now for the 500

Just like the shenanigans that place on Talladega Boulevard, the on-track racing should be just as exciting during Sunday’s 500. At any moment, pack racing at Talladega Superspeedway means that the field is just one bobble away from a massive wreck that can change the entire landscape of the event. For the 12 drivers …

Continue reading “NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Pick: The Longshot to Bet Now for the 500”

Larson’s Dover playoff win halts 75-race drought

Kyle Larson pulled away late and won the playoff race at Dover International Speedway to snap a 75-race winless streak and earn an automatic berth in the next round.

NASCAR at Dover Odds, Picks: There’s Value on the Chevys at the Drydene 400

The second round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) playoffs kicks off at Dover International Speedway. The “Monster Mile” is a steeply banked, 1-mile oval with a concrete surface that features a modest incident rate of 20.1% since 2013. Notably, that number reduces to 14.8% during the seven high-downforce races in that time frame. That includes a tame race earlier this year where only three back-marker cars suffered major problems.

Track history plays a strong role in my statistical model, which is likely due to the fact that Dover is such a unique track. Additionally, weighing the high downforce era improves the out-of-sample predictive power of my model, so it gives extra weight to the 2013-2015 races, plus the first race of 2019.

My statistical model this weekend consists of the following data points:

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