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The Sacramento Kings (21-31; 26-25-1 ATS) start a two-game road trip Monday night when they take on the best team in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks (45-7; 30-22 ATS). These two foes met each other in January, and the Bucks thrashed off the Kings 127-106 as 9.5-point road favorites. The Kings are winless in seven straight meetings with the Bucks including their previous three visits to Wisconsin, so Sacramento doesn’t have high hopes ahead of their Monday’s game at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
The Kings are without Marvin Bagley (foot), Richaun Holmes (shoulder), Jabari Parker (shoulder), and Alex Len (hip). The Bucks could miss George Hill (hamstring) who’s listed as questionable.
The Bucks opened as heavy 13.5-point favorites on BetOnline, while the total has been set at 227.0 points on all these platforms. Considering the Bucks’ displays, it’s no strange they are listed as double-digit favorites against the Kings who have won three straight games.
What’s at Stake?
The Kings are five games behind No. 8 seed in the West, so they are already in a must-win situation. However, beating the Bucks on the road seems like an impossible mission, so the Kings can play in a relaxed manner. On the other side, the Bucks are cruising in the East, six and a half games ahead of the second-seeded Toronto Raptors.
Sacramento is on a three-game winning streak following a 122-102 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. They will visit Dallas on Wednesday before going on the All-Star break. The Bucks are rolling on a four-game win streak following a 111-95 victory at the Orlando Magic on Saturday, and they will visit the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo had an off night in Sacramento, but the Bucks had no problems to beat the Kings 127-106. The Greek Freak accounted for 13 points, 10 boards, and five assists, taking just nine shots in 28 minutes on the court, but Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe combined for 51 points, while Donte DiVincenzo added 18 off the bench.
On the other side, De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes had 19 points each, leading six Sacramento players who scored in double figures. However, the Kings’ D struggled mightily, sending the Bucks to the charity stripe 30 times, while Sacramento had only ten free throws.
On paper, the Bucks are a far better team than the Kings. Milwaukee leads the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (101.8) and opponent field-goal percentage (40.9%), while the Bucks are second in the league in points scored per 100 possessions (113.7) and field-goal percentage (48.2%). On the other side, the Kings score 108.8 points per 100 possessions (21st in the NBA) while surrendering 111.2 points in a return (18th).
Sacramento’s frontcourt is pretty thin due to injury problems, so the Kings will have a mountain to climb in Fiserv Forum. They will have to defend well against Giannis and Brook Lopez, and that would be a tall task with Rachuan Holmes and Marvin Bagley on the sidelines.
The Bucks should dismantle the shorthanded Kings, so I suggest you take the hosts to cover despite a huge spread. Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, 3-1 ATS in its previous four outings at home, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Sacramento. If you don’t feel comfortable with a 13.5-point spread, buy a few points and take the lower wages.
Interestingly, the last 14 meetings between Sacramento and Milwaukee went in the over, so I cannot tell you bet on the under. The Kings average only 97.9 possessions per 48 minutes (27th in the league), while the Bucks play at the fastest pace in the NBA, tallying 105.1 possessions per 48 minutes. Hereof, I expect to see another high-scoring affair when these two foes take on each other. The Bucks could easily shut down the Kings’ offense, but there should be enough possessions to get us more than 227 points in total.
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