Phils Fantasy Sports
(Maximum Sports Channels – Phil Naessens
) Week eleven is just about in the books and week twelve will be here before we know it. In fact we have “two” week twelves as we have a three game slate on Thursday followed by a massive 12 game slate on Sunday.
Thursday’s main slate of games looks like one big turkey to me. The trick to winning big on Thursday will be to find that mid to low tier value as Le’Veon Bell ($9500) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8600) look too obvious to me as does Antonio Brown ($8800).
The game to attack on Thursday looks to be the Pittsburgh Steelers Indianapolis Colts game. The Colts are allowing the fourth most yards in the NFL (397) and the Steelers aren’t that far behind at 363 yards a game. The Steelers are also three point road favorites with an over under of 53 points.
Chicago Bears TE Zach Miller got the job done on Sunday; he caught three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants. Unfortunately he got hurt and now he’s out for the season. So who does QB Jay Cutler ($6600) throw to now?
Week eleven saw 12 missed PATS; I still remember the days when those used to be considered gimmes. Maybe after last week we will see more two point conversion attempts?
The Arizona Cardinals travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The over under on this game is currently 51 points and is the highest total thus far on the main slate. Atlanta is currently a four point home favorite. Many will be looking to Falcons QB Matt Ryan ($8700). I however am looking squarely at Cardinals QB Carson Palmer ($7100). The Falcons are allowing 283 passing yards a game and 23 touchdowns this season. The Cardinals also possess the best passing defense in the NFL allowing just 190 yards a game and only seven touchdowns this season.
Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi ($8400) has had a couple of rough weeks but returns home this Sunday to face a San Francisco 49er defense allowing 179.5 yards per game and 13 touchdowns this season. The last three home games have been good to Ajayi; he had FanDuel scores of 33.2, 28.1 and 20.5 points including four touchdowns. Ajayi seems to like home cooking and he has a great matchup this weekend against the 49ers.
Keep an eye on Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck ($8300) this week. Luck got his bell rung last Sunday and is under the NFL concussion protocol. The Colts play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the late game on Thursday and I really hope the Colts make a decision before lineup lock.
Is Washington Redskins RB Rob Kelley ($5700) really a thing? Over the past three games Kelley has 67 carries for 321 yards and four touchdowns. Two of Kelley’s bigger games and all four of those touchdowns were against shaky rushing defenses. The lowest score and the one where Kelley failed to score a touchdown came against a very solid Minnesota Vikings defense. This Thursday his Redskins travel to Dallas to take on a Cowboys defense allowing just 84.4 rushing yards a game and just five touchdowns. Great price for sure but that is a tough matchup for Kelley.
It’s hard not to like New England Patriots QB Tom Brady ($9100) and he does have a nice matchup with a New York Jets defense allowing 260.5 passing yards a game and 16 touchdowns this season. When you take a look at the Jets defensive splits you will see they actually play better on the road than at home. Unfortunately for the Jets they are hosting Brady and this should be a great matchup for Brady to exploit.
I’ll have much more later on in the week!